Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
