Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be prudent of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
